"The future of unionism depends entirely upon one thing - and I mean unionism with a small 'u' - it depends on winning the support of people who do not regard themselves to be unionists with a capital 'U'," he said. The 2011 official census figures put the Protestant population at 48 per cent and Catholics at 45 per cent, while more recent figures from 2016 show 44 per cent of working age adults are Catholic and 40 per cent Protestant. Among schoolchildren, Catholics are at 51 percent compared to 37 percent Protestant. The results of next year's census - which coincides with the centenary of Northern Ireland - could add to the confusion of how any potential border poll … "Does it mean one parliament in Dublin or two parliaments? It is projected that by 2021 there will be more Catholics (51%) than Protestants (37%) in Northern Ireland. It is likely Catholics will outnumber Protestants by 2021 in Northern Ireland, according to a leading academic. He said that although 45 percent identified as being Catholic in the 2011 census, only 25 percent of those surveyed claimed an exclusively Irish identity, the Irish News reports. A report this week by the Catholic News Agency suggests that according to census data, Protestants outnumbered Catholics by just three percent in 2011, while more recent data show a Catholic majority “in every age group of the population, except for those over 60.”. There will be more Catholics than Protestants in Northern Ireland by 2021, according to one leading expert. . TheJournal.ie supports the work of the Press Council of Ireland and the Office of the Press Ombudsman, and our staff operate within the Code of Practice. Now, however, Catholic schoolchildren … Roughly equal proportions of Roman Catholics and Protestants live in Belfast and County Armagh. Founded in 1921, Northern Ireland has always had a Protestant majority. The British and Irish governments and the people of Northern Ireland are facing the prospect – and sooner than most people might think – of how to manage a transformed constitutional situation where the majority in the North are likely to be from a Catholic background. If the "Catholic" South is any indication of what a Catholic majority gets you, maybe this isn't such a good thing after all. 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Christianity is the largest religion in Northern Ireland. "I think the more that gets unpacked, the more opinion will move back and forward. A financial letter from Santa (with a nod to Elf and Safety) . © Copyright 2020 Irish Studio LLC All rights reserved. However, the majority of the Northern Irish have forefathers who emigrated from England and Scotland and these two countries have been Protestant for almost 500 years. There are also small Hindu, Sikh, Muslim, Buddhist a More recent numbers show a Catholic majority … His analysis comes after DUP leader Arlene Foster said she would "probably" leave in the event of a united Ireland. Thus, in 1922 Northern Ireland began functioning as a self-governing region of the United Kingdom. Paul Nolan, an independent researcher, best known for the three Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Reports, told BBC News NI it is likely that by the centenary of the foundation of the state Catholics will outnumber Protestants. The Catholic Church has seen a small growth in adherents, while the other Christian groups have seen a small decrease. This is more back of the envelope and a “straw man” in nature and is in no way definitive. This has the potential to significantly destabilize Northern Irish politics. Gerry Moriarty . © Copyright 2020 Irish Studio LLC All rights reserved. The population of Northern Ireland, which has been predominantly Protestant since the state's founding in 1921, will likely be dominated by Catholics in three years, according to a new census, reported the Catholic News Agency on April 23. Mr Nolan pointed out that although 45 per cent identified in the 2011 census as being from a Catholic background, only 25 per cent claimed an exclusively Irish identity. According to the last census in 2011, Protestants outnumbered Catholics in Northern Ireland by just three percent. One in Belfast and one in Dublin? Among schoolchildren, 51 per cent are Catholic and 37 per cent Protestant, while among the over 60s the proportion is reversed, with 57 per cent Protestant and 35 per cent Catholic. CATHOLICS could outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland by 2021, a leading academic has suggested. Wed, Jan 4, 2012, 00:00. According to Paul Nolan, an academic and independent researcher known for the three Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Reports, Catholics will outnumber Protestants in only a few years. In Northern Ireland, Catholics and Protestants in urban, working-class neighborhoods continue to be segregated 20 years after the signing of the Good Friday peace deal. When British negotiators carved Northern Ireland from the newly independent south it was 65% Protestant, 35% Catholic, entrenching a unionist majority. It also allowed Northern Ireland the option of remaining outside of the Free State, which it unsurprisingly chose to do. Of course, it would be false to equate that with support for a united Ireland, and two events may well have more impact. . According to the 2011 Census, out of 1.8 million inhabitants, 40.76 per cent stated their religion as Roman Catholics, 19.06 per cent as Presbyterians, 13.74 per cent as Church of Ireland, 3 per cent as Methodists, 5.76 per cent were from other primarily Protestant denominations, 0.82 per cent other religions, 10.11 per cent no religions and 6.75 per cent did not state any religion. Its not going to go just in one direction," the academic said. Northern Ireland’s mainly Protestant pro-British majority and the Catholic minority, which traditionally favored reuniting with the Republic of Ireland… "We need to show that you can be British and Irish at the same time.". 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Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald said unionists "have to be at home in a new Ireland" and nothing, from the flag to the anthem would be "taboo". In fact, at current rates, the Catholics will be a majority after 2016. “The future of unionism depends entirely upon one thing – and I mean unionism with a small ‘u’ – it depends on winning the support of people who do not regard themselves to be unionists with a capital ‘U’,” he said. "According to the last census in 2011, Protestants outnumbered Catholics in Northern Ireland by just three percent," reported the news agency. Two-thirds of its population (about one million people) was Protestant and about one-third (roughly 500,000 people) was Catholic. This is attributed to the new generation that no longer views religion as a contentious issue between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Figures from 2016 showed 44 percent of working age adults are Catholic while 40 percent are Protestant, and among the over 60s demographic 57 percent are Protestant and only 35 percent are Catholic. According to Paul Nolan, an academic and … He said there is no need for this prediction to cause undue alarm among unionists as being a Catholic does not necessarily mean supporting a united Ireland. 2 years ago. "Three years from now we will end up, I think, in the ironic situation on the centenary of the state where we actually have a state that has a Catholic majority," he said. Northern Ireland The solution to the original pre-1922 Irish problem, and the modern Northern Ireland problem, and almost every conflict in the world, is the same: Every country should tolerate diversity. In Northern Ireland, the two-thirds Protestant majority saw the Catholic minority as a threat and had consolidated political power to the point that Catholics in the north no longer had an effective voice. Image caption Demographics are shifting in Northern Ireland ... Only among the over 60s is there a majority of Protestants with 57%, compared to Catholics on 35%. Last year, a leading academic predicted that Catholics could outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland as soon as 2021. The conflict was the result of discrimination against the Catholic minority by the Protestant majority and the question of Northern Ireland's status within the United … Get the day's headlines delivered directly to your inbox, DUP leader Arlene Foster said she would probably' leave in the event of a united Ireland. The 2011 official census showed a 48 percent Protestant population, just ahead of Catholics at 45 percent Catholic. "Three years from now we will end up, I … This blog is not a proper statistical study, a full analysis would use far more detailed data and sophisticated analysis with a package like SPSS. The school population in Northern Ireland, through University level, has been heavily Catholic for many years, so it is only a matter of time before there will be a Catholic majority in the six counties. More Protestants now going to church than Catholics as numbers drop, If Ireland is re-united, North's First Minister Arlene Foster would pack her bags. "In other words people who do not identify with the traditional trappings of unionism; people who would give their support for a UK government framework and that's a sizeable proportion of Catholics provided they are not alienated by any form of triumphalism or anything that seems to be a rejection of their cultural identity as nationalists.". Nolan points out that a Catholic majority does not necessarily mean that all will support a united Ireland. Many people in Northern Ireland are descendants of the original population of this region and are also Catholics. "For my part though, I would never leave this island," he said. 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Party colleague Christopher Stalford said while Ms Foster's views were "reflective of a lot of unionists ( who) feel they would effectively be pushed into the Irish sea", he would not be among any exodus. Protestants were t… Read More: More Protestants now going to church than Catholics as numbers drop. Catholic majority in Northern Ireland to present dilemma for Britain and Republic. He suggested it is likely debate on a future United Ireland would move to whether it might mean "two parliaments - one in Belfast and one in Dublin". "I think the more that gets unpacked, the more opinion will move back and forward. Every … There have been a number of queries, on Twitter, questioning whether this is true. The Union Jack, the Irish tricolor and the EU flag flying above Stromont, in Northern Ireland. The … On my recent blog on the Lord Ashcroft poll I made a statement that there were now almostcertainly more Cultural Catholics than Protestants in Northern Ireland. BBC Northern Ireland last night discussed population trends North of the Border, concluding that on present demographic tendencies, 2021 would mark the point at which NI would have a Catholic majority. The World. Every country should be a secular liberal democracy. The fragile peace established by the Good Friday Agreement could fall apart. In Northern Ireland, Brexit is once again raising difficult questions of identity: Catholic vs. Protestant, Irish vs. British, nationalist vs. unionist. Northern Ireland was created in 1921, when Ireland was partitioned between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland by the Government of Ireland Act 1920.Unlike Southern Ireland, which would become the Irish Free State in 1922, the majority of Northern Ireland's population were unionists, who wanted to remain within the United Kingdom. “In other words people who do not identify with the traditional trappings of unionism; people who would give their support for a UK government framework and that’s a sizeable proportion of Catholics provided they are not alienated by any form of triumphalism or anything that seems to be a rejection of their cultural identity as nationalists.”, Nolan suggested that this will lead to "more examination of what a United Ireland might mean.”, Read More: If Ireland is re-united, North's First Minister Arlene Foster would pack her bags. 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